{
  "schema_version": "immigrationdb-research-article-v1",
  "slug": "city-size-recorded-crime",
  "url": "https://immigrationdb.com/research/city-size-recorded-crime/",
  "title": "Are Smaller Cities Safer Than Bigger Cities?",
  "headline": "City size often tracks recorded crime, but density may not",
  "question": "Is a bigger city more dangerous per resident, and does the relationship between population and recorded crime hold in every country?",
  "summary": "Are smaller cities safer? Across 8,119 places, city size usually tracks recorded crime, but density, data grain and country context can reverse the result.",
  "published": "2026-08-06",
  "updated": "2026-08-06",
  "author": "Maksim Streltcov",
  "license": "https://immigrationdb.com/legal/terms/",
  "sections": [
    "What we measured",
    "What the data shows",
    "Where it breaks down",
    "What this means if you are moving",
    "Limits",
    "Method",
    "Sources"
  ],
  "faq": [
    {
      "q": "Are smaller cities safer than bigger cities?",
      "a": "Not as a universal rule. Population has a positive recorded-crime coefficient in nine of 11 reportable country samples, but the strength varies widely. Canada and Portugal are negative, although neither provides strong evidence of a dependable reversal. City size is therefore a screening clue, not a safety rule."
    },
    {
      "q": "Does higher population density mean more recorded crime?",
      "a": "Not consistently. In the United States, population correlates with recorded crime at +0.27 while density is -0.01. Germany is +0.19 for population and +0.03 for density, but most German outcomes are district rates. In the Netherlands, both coefficients are positive at +0.51 and +0.56."
    },
    {
      "q": "Why is Germany not a clean city-level result?",
      "a": "Of Germany's 2,061 rows, 2,024 attach a district-level crime rate to a city population. Several cities can therefore share one outcome, and districts containing more listed cities receive more weight. The coefficient describes this exported city-district matching, not a direct comparison of municipal crime rates."
    },
    {
      "q": "Why do the UK coefficient and decile comparison disagree?",
      "a": "The UK sample has only 23 cities, so each extreme decile contains two observations. Its +0.23 Spearman coefficient uses all ranks, while the largest-decile median is pulled down by Glasgow's separately sourced value. Using the largest and smallest fifths instead of tenths reverses the decile result."
    },
    {
      "q": "What crime data should I check before choosing a city?",
      "a": "Check the city's own recorded-crime rate, observation year, geographic grain and offence definition, then compare it with places covered by the same reporting system. Where available, add offence categories, neighbourhood patterns and multi-year trends. Population and density cannot substitute for those city-specific details."
    }
  ],
  "countries": [
    "belgium",
    "canada",
    "denmark",
    "germany",
    "lithuania",
    "netherlands",
    "portugal",
    "spain",
    "sweden",
    "united-kingdom",
    "united-states"
  ],
  "answer": "Often, but not reliably enough to make “smaller is safer” a rule. Among 8,089 places in 11 country samples, population has a positive Spearman coefficient with recorded crime per 100,000 in nine and a negative one in two. The range is -0.30 to +0.64, and the United States shows why size and density differ: +0.27 for population, -0.01 for density."
}