# City size often tracks recorded crime, but density may not

> Are smaller cities safer? Across 8,119 places, city size usually tracks recorded crime, but density, data grain and country context can reverse the result.

Published 2026-08-06 · Maksim Streltcov · https://immigrationdb.com/research/city-size-recorded-crime/

Often, but not reliably enough to make “smaller is safer” a rule. Among 8,089 places in 11 country samples, population has a positive Spearman coefficient with recorded crime per 100,000 in nine and a negative one in two. The range is -0.30 to +0.64, and the United States shows why size and density differ: +0.27 for population, -0.01 for density.

## What we measured
## What the data shows
## Where it breaks down
## What this means if you are moving
## Limits
## Method
## Sources

## Questions

**Are smaller cities safer than bigger cities?**

Not as a universal rule. Population has a positive recorded-crime coefficient in nine of 11 reportable country samples, but the strength varies widely. Canada and Portugal are negative, although neither provides strong evidence of a dependable reversal. City size is therefore a screening clue, not a safety rule.

**Does higher population density mean more recorded crime?**

Not consistently. In the United States, population correlates with recorded crime at +0.27 while density is -0.01. Germany is +0.19 for population and +0.03 for density, but most German outcomes are district rates. In the Netherlands, both coefficients are positive at +0.51 and +0.56.

**Why is Germany not a clean city-level result?**

Of Germany's 2,061 rows, 2,024 attach a district-level crime rate to a city population. Several cities can therefore share one outcome, and districts containing more listed cities receive more weight. The coefficient describes this exported city-district matching, not a direct comparison of municipal crime rates.

**Why do the UK coefficient and decile comparison disagree?**

The UK sample has only 23 cities, so each extreme decile contains two observations. Its +0.23 Spearman coefficient uses all ranks, while the largest-decile median is pulled down by Glasgow's separately sourced value. Using the largest and smallest fifths instead of tenths reverses the decile result.

**What crime data should I check before choosing a city?**

Check the city's own recorded-crime rate, observation year, geographic grain and offence definition, then compare it with places covered by the same reporting system. Where available, add offence categories, neighbourhood patterns and multi-year trends. Population and density cannot substitute for those city-specific details.